Prediction of Future Natural Suitable Areas for Rice under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)

Extreme temperature events, which are part of global climate change, a growing threat to crop production, especially such temperature-sensitive crops as rice. As result, the traditional rice-growing areas also likely shift. The MaxEnt model was used for predicting potentially suitable rice in short term (2016–2035) and medium (2046–2065) under two scenarios developed by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, namely representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 (the intermediate scenario) RCP 8.5 (sometimes referred worst-case scenario). predictions, verification, were seen be highly accurate: AUC—area curve—value > 0.85. made following predictions. (1) Areas will continue concentrated mainly current major rice-production areas, only marginally rainforest region. (2) Overall, although pattern distribution would remain more or less unchanged, their extent decrease subtropics but increase tropics high-latitude regions. (3) term.